The Potential Economic Implications of RFK Jr.’s Vaccine Skepticism

The nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for the nation’s top public health post has raised concerns that his skepticism about vaccines could affect longstanding health care practices that have prevented deadly diseases. A scaling back of routine vaccinations could also have significant economic consequences, based on recent government research.

Two weeks ago, President-elect Donald Trump named Kennedy, an activist and environmental lawyer, to head the Department of Health and Human Services in his incoming administration. If confirmed by the Senate, Kennedy will oversee the government’s health care programs, including the Centers for Disease Control.

Kennedy has denied being against vaccines, saying he only wants to make them safer. But the nomination has caused alarm among public health experts in light of his long history of opposing vaccines and making unsupported claims about their health risks, especially for children.

This summer, researchers at the CDC released a study showing the economic benefits that the Vaccines for Children program has brought to the country at relatively little cost. The CDC sets guidelines for childhood vaccinations that are widely followed by school districts throughout the country and administers the Vaccines for Children program, which provides free vaccines against measles, mumps, polio, and others.

Between 1994 and 2023, the CDC said, routine childhood shots protecting against deadly illnesses, including measles, mumps, and whooping cough, saved 1.1 million lives and $540 billion in medical care costs. Add in societal costs of illnesses such as time parents of sick children spend away from work (and subtract the $268 billion in costs of running the program) and vaccines saved $2.7 trillion, equivalent to the entire military budget for more than three years, the report said.

Vaccines Have Become a Charged Political Topic

Vaccines have become a politically charged and highly partisan topic, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic and controversies over vaccine mandates by businesses and governments.

Earlier this month, Kennedy told NPR that the new administration was “not going to take vaccines away from anybody.” He said he wants to research vaccine safety and provide the public with information.

Trump, for his part, said on at least three separate occasions while running for office that he would cut federal funding from any school district that had a vaccine mandate.

In a Gallup poll this summer, only 26% of Republicans said it was “extremely important” for parents to ensure their children were vaccinated. That’s compared to 63% of Democrats. In 2001, support for vaccines was strong among both parties, with 66% of Democrats and 62% of Republicans saying childhood vaccination was very important.

One possible reason is that most people are too young to remember the effects of polio, measles, and mumps firsthand or see hospital wards full of sick children, said Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. “Vaccines may be victims of their own success,” Offit said.