The summary indicates, “Overall, members noted that growth in recent months had been slightly below potential, and considerable economic slack remained.”
Looking forward, the council anticipates inflation to stay near the target and predicts a 2.1 percent growth rate for the Canadian economy next year. They also discussed a potential decline in population growth in 2024, which could impact consumption and growth.
Their discussions preceded the federal government’s announcement of a 21 percent reduction in newcomer numbers by 2025. Statistics Canada now estimates that population growth may turn negative over the next two years, below the central bank’s initial projections.
In response to these immigration adjustments, Governor Tiff Macklem stated that policymakers will monitor population trends closely and “will be revising as we gain more confidence in what exactly is going to happen.”
Despite the challenges, governing council members remain optimistic about the impact of lower interest rates on consumption growth, expecting that high interest rates and elevated mortgage rates will diminish in importance over time.
