Inflation Likely Stayed Slightly Too Hot For Comfort In October

Inflation, the economic force that helped sweep the Democratic party out of the White House, likely stayed just a bit too hot for comfort in October, according to forecasts.

A report due Thursday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is likely to show the Consumer Price Index rose 2.6% over the year in October, up from 2.4% in September, according to a survey of economists by Bloomberg Finance. “Core” inflation, which excludes the volatile prices of food and energy, likely stayed at 3.3%, the same as in September.

Both those rates are higher than the 2% annual rate targeted by the Federal Reserve, which sets the nation’s monetary policy with the goal of keeping price increases stable. Inflation has plummeted from its peak in mid-2022 when the CPI was its highest in more than 40 years.

Inflation staying stubbornly high could also keep borrowing costs higher for longer. Officials at the Fed held the influential fed funds rate at a two-decade high until September, aiming to subdue inflation by keeping borrowing costs on all kinds of loans elevated. In the last two meetings of the Fed’s policy committee, central bankers cut interest rates, believing that inflation was on a path down to the 2% goal.

Stubborn Inflation Could Keep Interest Rates Higher

However, stubborn inflation could make the Fed hold off on further rate cuts.

Core inflation is expected to have risen 0.3% from September, the fourth month in which the rate has increased or stayed the same rather than fallen.

“Core inflation has failed to moderate for four months,” John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros, economists at Brean Capital Markets, wrote in a commentary. “Another gain of that magnitude would present a challenge to a Fed rate cut at the December meeting.”

The path of inflation has political as well as economic implications. According to exit polls, voter anger over price increases during the Biden administration was a key factor in President-elect Donald Trump’s victory Tuesday.